Allow me a digression...

COVID-19 is impacting all, and when I mean all I mean really almost everyone on the globe, in a way or another. 

One thing that everyone is saying is that this virus is very contagious and we must try to do whatever we can to prevent it to spread.

But at the same time we also know that a lot of cases are without symptoms, and given that the real number of the people affected can be much higher. 

 

Given that I wonder HOW IS POSSIBLE that we have only ~150K cases? 

If we analyze the % of the people affected that have done the test we see that we had between the 18-10% of the TESTED resulted positive. 

But how many tests we have done? WE had done 1,046,910 which is only the 1.73% of the population!

 

Do you get it?? 

We have a very aggressive virus that can be transmitted from person to person very easily and we have tested only 1.73% of the population.

Now media continue to talk about deceased and new infected. 

New infected is a bunch of bullshit, given that the number fluctuate day by day in relation to the number of TESTS they do see below. So the number of new infected is manipulated to create more or less stress on the population.

What about the deceased? This is the only objective number so far. But what is the impact? 

The impact of COVID-19 on the deceased is of the  0.001683% over the total population against the average of 1.049% for the 2018(source ISTAT https://www.istat.it/it/files/2019/07/Statistica-report-Bilancio-demografico-2018.pdf).

Now we know that the people taking the test "have already something" so using the full % coming from it can be considered as the WORSE ever case scenarion, while taking the 15% only can be considered a safe assumption of the population really affected:

AN Population estimate

Which gives us a better understanding. At the moment of the peak we may had 1,6 MILLION people affected in the best case and 11 Million in the worse case. 

Well those numbers seem more real to me that the 156K presented. Those numbers justify the actions taken, because without the isolations, is probable that the number of deceased will be higher especially in the elders.

With the quarantine, we had reduced the number of positive interacting with the weakest and reduce the people that may have died.

 

Another point is the trend, if we remove the bullshit around the number of tests and calculate the trend only:

AN Infection factor

Also this makes more sense than the stupid up and down they a re presenting us. The number of new infected normalized is going down, and now in the best case we have 900K still affected and 6 Millions in the worse. 

Well to me at least this makes more sense... Stay at home not for you but for the weakest... not for long  though.

 

Will remove a lot of the graphs below because based on data that I do not trust anymore 

 

 

Data up to  12 April 2020

 total cases

Now DATA:

how are we doing national wide?

New positive and new Tests taken

A per day positivi tamponi

 

basic index

 

total simple bar

I think the above are quite important number to keep in mind. They are valid as for today and give a point of reference.

 

Positive by day and deceased including %trend

 andamento positivi deceduti

 

Positive case National level

andamento nazionale infetti decedutit tamponi 

 

Positive case By Region

tot poitive bars

 

Decesead - Deceduti

deceduti

  

malati totali per regione

This is the number of the people infected officially identified.

nation 1

 

 

 nation 2

nation 3

nation 4

 

guariti deceduti

 

int care vs deaceded

 

By Region

Abruzzo

abruzzo

Basilicata

basilicata

Calabria

calabria

Campania

campania

Emilia Romagna

emiliaromagna

Friuli Venezia Giulia

friuli

Lazio

lazio

Liguria

liguria

Lombardia

lombardia

Marche

marche

Molise

molise

P.A. Bolzano

pa bolzano

P.A. Trento

pa trento

Piemonte

piemonte

Puglia

puglia

Sardegna

sardegna

Sicilia

sicilia

Toscana

toscana

Umbria

umbria

Valle d'Aosta

valledaosta

Veneto

veneto

 

Additional information 

 I also want to share here

 That initially I tought was a scam but absolutely no. It is a very siimple to uderstand explanation of what COVID-19 does.

 

 

 Note:

We have different things happening in Italy right now.

Last but not least every day Italy is under attack not by the virus but by economical interests of other countries of EU in details France and Germany.  

While this is a major concern, and we are doing what we can to resist to that I will not talk about it here, but is worth knowing that WHILE WE HAVE ISSUES some part of EU is doing whatever they can to take advantage for their own interest.

We will not forget, we will not forgive.

  

 

data source:
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19

Editore/Autore del dataset: Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

Temi del dataset: Salute umana e sicurezza - Human health and safety (Inspire)

Categoria ISO 19115: Salute

Dati forniti dal Ministero della Salute

Elaborazione e gestione dati a cura del Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

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